Abstract

Abstract. This paper focuses on modeling students flow in educational system with a stochastic process depending mainly on Markov Chains to predict the number of graduate students for the coming years. This paper curried out in the high education system in Sudan under the enlargement of intakes during (2001-2011). The model has been applied to estimate the predicting number and ratios of students in different levels for graduate students after studying period without delaying, the ratio of whole graduations, the delaying ratio and dismissed students over the batches. The results indicated that The ratio of delaying seems to be decreasing all over the batches (61%,45%,42%,33%). From the mean absolute error (MAE) test, the model shows that there is homogeneous and no significant difference in comparing the actual numbers with predicted numbers.

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