BENEFITS OF PRICE FORECAST TO CASTOR GROWERS IN GUJARAT
Journal Title: International Journal of Agriculture Sciences - Year 2016, Vol 8, Issue 52
Abstract
The present study was undertaken to analyze the impact of price forecasts of castor released by Agriculture Market Intelligence Centre (AMIC) of Junagadh Agricultural University, Junagadh in crop year 2013-14. Monthly time series data on wholesale prices of castor for the period 1990 to 2013 were obtained from Patan APMC for price forecast. Various time series models were applied to analyze the data. ARIMA (0,1,2) model was found the best fitted model with lowest MAPE value and hence price was forecasted using this model. Finally a market advisory was prepared and released through different mass media like news papers, voice SMS, farmers trainings and university website. To study the impact of price forecast, all the 30 farmers (targeted farmers) who attended the training conducted by AMIC of JAU, Junagadh were aware with price forecast and adopted the price forecast suggestions. Further 30 non targeted farmers selected were those who were not training participants. The price forecasted for months from March to May, 2014 was Rs. 3800 to 4300 per quintal and farmers were suggested to store castor and sell after May, 2014. On an average 2.72 ha area was operated under castor by sample farmers. An incremental income realized to the extent of Rs. 35826 per hectare by the farmers who sold their produce after May, 2014.
Authors and Affiliations
HARESH CHAVDA
Keywords
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