Description of expert forecasting of Ukrainian macroeconomic indicators for the period 1999-2020
Journal Title: Економічний аналіз - Year 2017, Vol 27, Issue 3
Abstract
Introduction. Most economic agents use forecasts of macro environment. Predictions are the primary basis of the budgets development and approval. Methodology and forecasting accuracy influence actual realization of object, through the stimulation of economic agents. Purpose. The article aims to identify patterns in macroeconomic forecasts which are completed by domestic and foreign experts. Method (methodology). To carry out the analysis, we have not used the individual forecasts of institutions. It has been completed the database of historical change of predictions of the same indicator. Accordingly, the macro index of Ukraine of certain year was predicted by experts from 5 to 10 times at different time intervals. The fluidity of experts’ mood was analysed along with external conjuncture effects and internal prejudices of specialists. Forecasts, which have been made on a medium term for 2-4 years, are disconnected by experts from the current situation and mostly reflect internal models and mood. Therefore, despite the year of the object realization, short-term and medium-term forecasts have features that need to be highlighted. Results. The analytical and graphical analysis of the expert forecasts flow of macroeconomic indices has been carried out. The trends in the economic conditions (periods of growth, crisis) and the internal attitudes of foresights performers have been distinguished. Own medium-term forecast has been formed. The ineffectiveness of expert forecasting of inflation processes in Ukraine for previous periods has been shown. Application of results. Performers of economic reproduction forecasts can effectively take into account the marked trends and correct their own calculation methodology. The collected data can be the basis for further statistical and econometric analysis, determination of the main factors in expert forecasting, construction of intelligent systems with recurrent correction of prognostic error.
Authors and Affiliations
Serhii Rybalchenko
Keywords
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