Discord at Home, Discord in the World: Is Turkey, NATO’s Eastern Frontier, Sustainably Stable and Peaceful?
Journal Title: Vojenske rozhledy - Year 2018, Vol 27, Issue 4
Abstract
The goal of this paper is to determine if it is likely for Turkey to remain a stable country that will avoid serious internal conflicts and violent conflicts abroad. The paper examines long-term cultural and civilizational variables of cosmopolitanism and rationality. It examines indicators that are more immediately associated with the escalation of an internal conflict: violent criminality, youth unemployment rate, income inequality, corruption perception, and political terror. In the end, it examines the level of militarization and the evolution and current state of civil-military relations. It concludes that most of the indicators do not bode well for the stability and democratic consolidation of Turkey. The reason Turkey has not succumbed to political violence and social instability is likely due to its high level of political repression. Given the characteristics of the Turkish society, two basic scenarios for future development are feasible: Turkey can either become much less stable and a victim to social discord with a chance of dangerous escalation; or it will cement its authoritarianism and manage social order by draconian policing, disproportionate “counter-terrorism” laws and disregard for the rule of law. Neither of these scenarios is favourable for its NATO allies, who must engage Turkey and work within the framework of existing alliances and international organizations to mitigate the risks of Turkey either becoming a rogue player or a state embroiled in a civil conflict.
Authors and Affiliations
Vladimír Bízik
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP418965
- DOI 10.3849/2336-2995.27.2018.04.049-063
- Views 134
- Downloads 0
The Fight of France Against ISIS in Iraq and Syria Since Summer 2014 until March 2016
This article discusses political and military issue of Islamic State, since establishment of the anti-IS alliance in summer 2014 until March 2016 in Iraq and Syria. The article describes each step made during this period...
Analysis of Nato and EU Approaches to Capability Planning Process
The aim of the article is to bring out results of the comparative analysis of NATO and EU defence planning processes. The comparative analysis was focused on identification of those findings which are identical for both...
Development of soldiers' physical training during basic training in the Czech Armed Forces
The general trend of weight gain, decreasing physical fitness and health complications in the general population is also reflected in the recruitment of new candidates. Their physical readiness is expected to be high. Th...
Islamist Territorially Anchored Violent Non-State Actor in the International System
Islamist territorially anchored violent non-state actors (ITAVNSAs) seeking to change the status quo of the current international system constitute one of the greatest challenges the international order based on mutual r...
Types of Problems Solved in the CR Department of Defence and Rules for their Solution
The article presents partial conclusions of the questionnaire survey on “Problem Solving in the Defence Department of the Czech Republic”. First, possible types of the addressed problems and methods for solving the ill-s...