EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN POLAND - APPLICATION OF AUGMENTED GRAVITY MODEL
Journal Title: Zeszyty Naukowe Wyższej Szkoły Finansów i Prawa w Bielsku-Białej - Year 2015, Vol 1, Issue 3
Abstract
This paper applies the gravity model to Poland´s international trade with aim to assess the impact of exchange rate uncertainty of Polish zloty on the trade flows with its main trading partners. The basic gravity model shows trade volume between a pair of countries as an increasing function of their sizes (GDP) and a decreasing function of the distance between them. Additional factors included in the extended model are: population, common border and exchange rate volatility. The measure of exchange rate volatility is estimated by GARCH model. The analysis is provided by using quarterly data over the period 1999:1 – 2014:3. The analysis uses panel data regression for 10 sectors of Poland´s international trade based on SITC classification and six major trading partners (Czech Republic, Germany, France, Great Britain, Italy and Slovakia). The significant parameters obtained from panel regression demonstrate that bilateral exchange rate volatility leads to a decrease in Poland´s total trade. The same direction of relationship was confirmed for food and live animal, beverages and tobacco, crude materials, chemicals, manufactured goods, machinery and transport equipment and miscellaneous manufactured articles.
Authors and Affiliations
Daniel Stavarek, Julia Simakova
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP194247
- DOI -
- Views 91
- Downloads 0
DETERMINATION OF THE FINANCIAL RESULT IN THE INSURANCE AND REINSURANCE COMPANIES CONSIDERING THE ACCOUNTING ACT
The procedure of determining the financial result in the insurance companies significantly differs from the rules set for a typical entity. The paper, using the example of the report-the profit and loss account presents...
Culture and its Creators – Challenges and Financial Issues
Culture and its creators are the driving force of social development. The paper presents the history of financing the culture over the last three hundred years and looks at the cultural policy adopted in Poland. Traditio...
PRACTICAL ASPECTS OF THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE POLISH REPUBLIC AND THE SLOVAK REPUBLIC FOR THE AVOIDANCE OF DOUBLE TAXATION WITH RESPECT TO TAXES ON INCOME AND PROPERTY
The Slovak Republic is one of the most important economic partners of Poland. Crossborder cooperation between our two countries has been growing continuously for over twenty years. One of the areas of possible conflicts...
LEGAL DEREIFICATION OF ANIMALS – THE POLISH EXPERIENCE
The aim of the paper is to present the concept of normative dereification of animals. Since 1997 Poland has been one of the countries which decided to build their animal protection system on the foundation of distinction...
Legal comparative analysis of the Roman societas and the contemporary civil law partnership in Polish and German law
The paper presents legal comparative analysis of the Roman societas and the contemporary civil law partnership in Polish and German law. The author analyses the origins and essence of a civil law partnership, then descri...