Forecasting demand on the domestic electricity market on the basis of the results of social and economic indicators dynamics analysis
Journal Title: Економічний аналіз - Year 2018, Vol 28, Issue 3
Abstract
The works, which are devoted to the forecasting of demand for electric power, are analysed in this research. A number of these works is identified in order to use the available data. The influence of individual social and economic factors on the volume of annual electricity consumption in Ukraine is investigated. The use of forecasting of demand for electric energy data on the volume of gross domestic product on the parity of purchasing power, GDP energy intensity and the population of Ukraine for the period of 1991-2017 are substantiated, as well as the correlation between them. The annual volumes of electricity consumption are determined. It has been proposed the economic and mathematical model of forecasting and use of multiple regression equations. The method of reduction of the nonlinearity of the dynamics of the investigated factors is considered. We have compared the results, which are obtained after the use of this model, with the results of the available national forecasts.
Authors and Affiliations
Mykhailo Krutsyak
Keywords
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