Forecasting GDP Growth: Application of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model
Journal Title: Empirical Economic Review - Year 2018, Vol 1, Issue 2
Abstract
This paper uses Box-Jenkins approach to model and forecast real GDP growth in Ethiopia. Such an approach could easily provide forecast for key macroeconomic variables in limited data environment. Based on the approach, the paper estimates Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ARIMA (1,1,1) model and forecasts real GDP growth. Both the in-sample fit and pseudo-out of sample forecasts show that the ARIMA model’s performance are good and better than other forecasts.
Authors and Affiliations
Yesuf M Awel
Keywords
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- EP ID EP498830
- DOI 10.29145/eer/12/010201
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Forecasting GDP Growth: Application of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model
This paper uses Box-Jenkins approach to model and forecast real GDP growth in Ethiopia. Such an approach could easily provide forecast for key macroeconomic variables in limited data environment. Based on the approach, t...