Forecasting Infections by Tuberculosis in the Nile River State "Sudan"
Journal Title: UNKNOWN - Year 2015, Vol 4, Issue 1
Abstract
The aim of this paper is to find a time series model to forecast the number of infections by Tuberculosis in the River Nile state "Sudan". The source of data is the national program to fight tuberculosis in the ministry of health and population of the Nile river state "Sudan". Box and Jenkins models were used to find the model. Analysis done by Minitab package. The paper concluded that, the Cumulative Incidence rate of Tuberculosis for the period studied is 0.15 and the appropriate model to estimate infections of Tuberculosis in the Nike river stat is moving average model "MA" and the forecast of infections by Tuberculosis for the two coming years ranging from 74 to 140 case.
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