Forecasting Mean Temperature using Sarima Model for Junagadh City of Gujarat
Journal Title: International Journal of Agricultural Science and Research (IJASR) - Year 2017, Vol 7, Issue 4
Abstract
Forecasting of temperature can be done by combination of several mathematical models, using time series analysis. ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) model considers past data and prediction errors and relates its present data to obtain forecast. If time series has seasonality inherent in it, then Season ARIMA models are utilized to make forecast. Mean temperature forecasting for Junagadh city was carried out using SARIMA model, by using the past data from the period of 1984 to 2015. The orders of the model were estimated from the auto correlogram and partial autocorrelogram. Several candidate models were developed for forecasting mean temperature. The model with the least value of Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) was selected as the appropriate model for forecasting mean temperature. SARIMA (1, 0, 1) (1, 1, 1) (12) was selected as the best model for mean temperature forecast. Test for normality of residuals were performed to check the adequacy of the selected model. According to the model diagnostics, the model was reliable for forecasting mean temperatures.
Authors and Affiliations
D. K. Dwivedi, G. R. Sharma, S. S. Wandre
Keywords
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