FORECASTING THE PRICE ON OIL OF MARK “BRANT” BY THE METHOD SSA-CATERPILLAR
Journal Title: Інноваційна економіка - Year 2017, Vol 68, Issue 3
Abstract
Purpose. The aim of the article is to analyze the consumption of oil and its role in the global energy sector; to determine the changes in oil prices and predict the dynamics of prices in the future by the method of “Caterpillar-SSA”; to elect the trend line and understand what factors affect the pricing of oil. Methodology of research. The method of “Caterpillar-SSA” is used during the study: to analyze price fluctuations, the selection of the trend line and forecasting price in the future. It was established that the method of analysis of time series “Caterpillar-SSA” helps to see and identify certain patterns of time series, which is usually invisible. Findings. The dynamics of oil use in Ukraine over the period is analyzed. The changes in oil prices on the basis of using the method of “Caterpillar-SSA” are determined. The line of trend is leased and price forecast for the coming period is implemented. The factors that affect the pricing formation of oil are investigated and analyzed. The forecast of oil prices for the coming period is implemented. Originality. An effective tool for research of “Caterpillar-SSA” is used by which the trend line is highlighted, the forecast of oil prices is made and the role of oil in the global energy sector is analyzed. Practical value. Research results make it possible to analyze changes in the dynamics of oil price and implement forecasting process of pricing policies for oil.
Authors and Affiliations
Khrystyna Lipianina, Yurii Semenenko
Keywords
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