FUZZY SET THEORY APPLYING TO ACCIDENT OR EMERGENCY FORECAST: CASE STUDY OF SAFETY BREACH IN MINE
Journal Title: International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology - Year 2019, Vol 10, Issue 3
Abstract
The paper deals with the problems of industrial accidents on coal-mining enterprises of Russia. Relevance of study is proved since rate of accidents in coalmining industry is high as compared to that in the countries, leading in volumes of production. The main problem here is the fact that hidden causes for occurring most accidents are still not fully examined. Most accidents being the primary reasons for failed industrial injuries and incidents are not identified so far. Currently there is a task of establishing a system for accounting, analyzing, and predicting probability for violations of industrial safety rules, where the major problem lies in availability of non-identified cases, when the workers use hazardous methods of work. The paper is devoted to a way of solving the problem in question, namely, to use of statistical method of forecasting through fuzzy set theory. The key approach described in the paper involves construction of membership function characterizing frequency of occurrences when workers fail to comply with industrial safety rules, and constituting a tool for assessing dynamics of workers’ non-compliances with labor and industrial safety norms thereafter. An example of using the forecast method is presented related to the mine in operation based on data about identified violations. Practical use of accident probability forecast method given in the paper enabled to achieve the following results: - probable amount of labor safety rules violations for subsequent period was predicted to timely develop and introduce preventive measures; - an opportunity for accounting non-identified cases of violations using fuzzy set theory was described. The paper materials may be of advantage for labor safety departments and production control departments as methodological materials to employ proactive approach to decrease the number of industrial violations, and, as a result, facilitate reduction of the number of industrial accidents.
Authors and Affiliations
VALERIY V. SMIRNYAKOV, VICTORIA V. SMIRNYAKOVA, IGOR I. PROKOPOV AND DANIL S. PEKARCHUK
Keywords
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