Investigating and Formulating Anthropogenic Threats in Refinery Projects with a Combination of AHP-TOPSIS Method: A Case Study of Tehran Oil Refinery
Journal Title: System Engineering and Productivity - Year 2023, Vol 2, Issue 4
Abstract
Refinery projects are always associated with a high percentage of threats and risks due to their many activities; therefore, considering the difficulties that arise due to various threats and risks in the implementation of projects, their evaluation is of great importance. The issue at hand is the classification and severity of the impact of these threats and risks on such projects, which must be seriously considered. Identifying and prioritizing risks can play a significant role in these projects. The aim of this research is to identify and evaluate risks and threats that have a great impact on the project and increase time and cost. In the meantime, we first collected information by studying the library and reviewing documents related to the subject, and then we evaluated the threats using a combination of methods such as the development method, which is part of the hierarchical approach (AHP) and the fuzzy TOPSIS method, which is a strong theory for prioritizing threats and risks. In this study, nearly 100 risks and threats affecting refinery projects have been identified, which are related to the study sample, Tehran Oil Refinery, and have been identified and prioritized according to factors such as the impact of risk on time, cost, and quality, and the probability of risk occurrence, risk detection capability, and risk management capability. The results indicate that by implementing the proposed method, the total threats are expected to be reduced by 42.6% and the expected favorable effects on refinery risk by 39.3%. In addition, the expected unfavorable effects on the refinery are reduced by 41.3% and the undesirable effects on maintenance, security, and preservation of the refinery are reduced by 47.6%. Finally, solutions are presented to reduce such risks.
Authors and Affiliations
Yazdani Hoshyar, A. Keshvari, A.
Keywords
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- EP ID EP768175
- DOI 10.22034/sep.2023.704334
- Views 7
- Downloads 0
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