Long-Term Variability of Forest Fires in Selected 28 European Countries, Canada and the USA

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Long-Term Variability of Forest Fires in Selected 28 European Countries, Canada and the USA

Journal Title: Safety & Fire Technology - Year 2017, Vol 47, Issue 47

Abstract

Aim: The primary aim of this paper was to determine long-term variability in the number of forest fires and burnt forest area in selected 28 European countries, Canada and the USA and to assess the effectiveness of fire protection systems in the forests of those countries. The secondary aim was to identify similarities between the analysed countries in terms of the incidence of forest fires and the effectiveness of forest fire protection systems. Introduction: Forest fires not only cause tangible economic losses, but they also typically result in serious changes in forest ecosystems. By affecting fauna, flora and the air, among other things, they simultaneously contribute to a deterioration of living conditions. Worldwide approx. 40% forested areas are at risk of forest fires, while in Europe it is over 60%. Additionally, due to climate change, decreasing precipitation and prolonged periods with no rainfall it is forecast that fire hazard in forests is going to increase, which will not only be manifested in a greater number of fires, but will also contribute to their intensive spreading. In this context, it is crucial to conduct analyses of forest fires Methodology: Analyses were conducted on data concerning the number of forest fires, burnt forest areas and the mean area of a single fire in 28 European countries, Canada and the USA. The number of fires and the burnt area were compared to the total forested areas in individual countries by converting the values of these characteristics per 1000 ha forested area in a given country. Trends for the available varying lengths of data series were determined using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test. Countries were clustered in terms of the incidence of forest fires and the effectiveness of fire protection systems in the years 1990-2015 using the hierarchical method of cluster analysis based on Euclidean distances and the Ward agglomeration method. Conclusions: Generally, the analyses conducted in the above-mentioned 30 countries did not confirm forecasts on the increasing numbers of forest fires or burnt forest areas, which may be explained e.g. by the consequences of climate change. Nevertheless, in some countries statistically disturbing trends were observed for these characteristics. The lowest mean forest fire areas were recorded for the Czech Republic, Finland, Germany, Austria, Sweden, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland and Ukraine, which indicates that those countries had the highest effectiveness of forest fire protection measures. In terms of the number of fires and burnt forested area Poland is clustered with Hungary, Turkey, France and Bulgaria. Hierarchical cluster analysis using linear indices for changes in the number of forest fires, burnt area and mean fire area (Sen’s slope) as well as mean forest fire area clustered Poland with Latvia, Slovakia, Ukraine and Belarus next to Finland, the Czech Republic, Lithuania, Germany, Sweden and Austria.

Authors and Affiliations

Sylwester Grajewski

Keywords

EP ID EP265188
DOI 10.12845/bitp.47.3.2017.3
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