Management of public opinion in the conditions of electronic democracy

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Management of public opinion in the conditions of electronic democracy

Journal Title: Маркетинг і цифрові технології - Year 2019, Vol 3, Issue 2

Abstract

The aim of the article. The article purpose is to develop a model for describing the dynamic processes in development of social opinion in society at the micro social level, when the dynamics of the general characteristics of society are modeled, and the approaches to managing this process in conditions of electronic democracy through the influence of electronic communications is developed. The results of the analyses. As a significant characteristic, the number of people who hold a certain social opinion is chosen. The dynamics of change of public opinion is proposed to be described by a nonlinear differential equation. It includes a linear term of the number of supporters, which describes an increase of the number of adherents. The limiting term is quadratic in the number of adherents and describes the resistance of the society to this public opinion. Also presented is an improvement of the model, which includes both nonlinear terms. It is shown that electronic communication tools of society are a powerful factor in influencing to the formation and dynamics of public opinion. The method of application of the proposed model is developed, the possible variants of conducting the experiments necessary for measuring parameters of the model are described. The method of management of public opinion, which consists in managing the quantitative values of model parameters, is described. Examples of situations that may require management in the framework of the models and methods obtained in the article in order to optimize the development of society are given. Conclusions and perspectives for further research. The method of public opinion managing in frame of e-democracy using electronic communication means can be presented in the form of such set of stages. Stage 1. The purpose (goals) and the subject area of social opinion in which the management will be carried out.The subject area should also include the social opinion that needs to be managed. In addition, the given subject area should include several already active public opinion (this will be necessary to determine the parameters of the model and to verify its). Stage 2. Dynamic characteristics of other social opinion that are already functioning in the given subject areas are studied. Such characteristics are the characteristic time corresponding to the characteristic changes in the dynamics of existing (not investigated) social opinion. As the magnitude of the equilibrium number of adherents of public opinion, one can choose the average time value of the supporters after its rapid growth finishing (or a rapid fall, respectively). Thus, as a social opinion, which will be used to calculate the parameters of the model, it is necessary to use those social ideas from a given subject domain that have already passed the entire dynamic cycle from the beginning of its introduction to society to stabilize the number of its supporters. Stage 3. Using the quantitative values of the corresponding characteristics obtained in the previous step, we calculate for the formula, which was derived in the article, the quantitative value of the parameter of the model that is responsible for the growth of supporters. Stage 4. Using the indicators of Stages 2 and 3, we find, according to the formulas of the article, the quantitative value of the model parameter, which is responsible for limiting the number of adherents of public opinion. Stage 5. We use the calculated values of the model parameters for forecasting and controlling the given public opinion in accordance with the given purpose.

Authors and Affiliations

Anatoliy Shyian, Liliia Nikiforova

Keywords

EP ID EP593945
DOI 10.15276/mdt.3.2.2019.3
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