Modeling sequential context effects in judgment analysis:
Journal Title: Judgment and Decision Making - Year 2008, Vol 3, Issue 7
Abstract
In this article a broad perspective incorporating elements of time series theory is presented for conceptualizing the data obtained in multi-trial judgment experiments. Recent evidence suggests that sequential context effects, assimilation and contrast, commonly found in psychophysical judgment tasks, may be present in judgments of abstract magnitudes. A time series approach for analyzing single-subject data is developed and applied to expert prognostic judgments of risk for heart disease with an emphasis on detecting possible sequential context effects. The results demonstrate that sequential context effects do exist in such expert prognostic judgments. Contrast and assimilation were produced by cue series; the latter occurring more frequently. Experts also showed assimilation of prior responses that was independent of the cue series input. Time series analysis also revealed that abrupt or large trial-by-trial changes in the value of cues that receive the most attention in prognostic judgment tasks can disrupt the accuracy of these judgments. These findings suggest that a time series approach is a useful alternative to ordinary least squares regression, providing additional insights into the cognitive processes operating during multi-cue judgment experiments.
Authors and Affiliations
Jason W. Beckstead
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP677655
- DOI -
- Views 402
- Downloads 0
The value of victory: social origins of the winner’s curse in common value auctions
Auctions, normally considered as devices facilitating trade, also provide a way to probe mechanisms governing one’s valuation of some good or action. One of the most intriguing phenomena in auction behavior is the winner...
Preferring balanced vs. advantageous peace agreements: A study of Israeli attitudes towards a two state solution
The paper extends research on fixed-pie perceptions by suggesting that disputants may prefer proposals that are perceived to be equally attractive to both parties (i.e., balanced) rather than one-sided, because balanced...
Are patient decision aids effective? Insight from revisiting the debate between correspondence and coherence theories of judgment
Research endeavors to determine the effectiveness of patient decision aids (PtDAs) have yielded mixed results. The conflicting evaluations are largely due to the different metrics used to assess the validity of judgments...
Herbert Simon’s spell on judgment and decision making
How many judgment and decision making (JDM) researchers have not claimed to be building on Herbert Simon’s work? We identify two of Simon’s goals for JDM research: He sought to understand people’s decision processes—the...
Possession, feelings of ownership and the endowment effect
Research in judgment and decision making generally ignores the distinction between factual and subjective feelings of ownership, tacitly assuming that the two correspond closely. The present research suggests that this a...