MODELIRANJE PREKRŠIOCA OGRANIČENJA BRZINE NA MAURICIJUSU UZ PRIMENU SIMETRIČNIH I ASIMETRIČNIH MODELA GARCH: OD FINANSIJSKOG DO SAOBRAĆAJNOG MODELIRANJA
Journal Title: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL FOR TRAFFIC AND TRANSPORT ENGINEERING - Year 2012, Vol 2, Issue 2
Abstract
Mnoge zemlje su usvojile važnu politiku koja ima za cilj da ograniči broj povreda/saobraćajnih nezgoda sa fatalnim ishodom, a kao najvažnija izdvaja se primena zakona o ograničenju brzine. Na Mauricijusu je u tom smislu nedavno počela da se primenjuje strategija korišćenja kamera s ciljem uočavanja prekoračenja brzine. Empirijska literatura o prekršiocima ograničenja brzine je veoma skromna kada je reč o modeliranju. U suštini, ovaj rad predstavlja prvu studiju koja pruža pouzdano ekonometrijsko modeliranje za prekršioce ograničenja brzine. Rezultati pokazuju da GARCH model može da posluži za modeliranje broja prekršilaca ograničenja brzine. Zabeležili smo različite uticaje, jasno prikazujući važnost tipa saobraćajnog toka prekršilaca ograničenja brzine koji leži u osnovi nepoštovanja propisa, odnosno prekoračenja brzine. Rezultati pokazuju jasan uticaj vikenda, što potvrđuje veštačka varijabla. Očekujemo da će naše istraživanje dati prednost primeni modela GARCH za modeliranje saobraćaja ne samo u slučaju Mauricijusa već i u slućaju drugih zemalja u svetu.
Authors and Affiliations
Indranarain Ramlall
Keywords
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