Abstract

Improving public transportation in the cities of the developing world is an opportunity to mitigate greenhouse gases (GHG). In South Africa the lack of formal and reliable public transport (PT) systems has prompted the proposal of integrated rapid public transport networks (IRPTNs) for implementation in 12 metropolitan municipalities and six districts, including the eThekwini Municipal Area (EMA). Motivated by the shortage of carbon emission studies and scenario analyses in the PT sector, this study serves as a benchmark for the GO!Durban system – the IRPTN planned for the eThekwini Municipality. A comparison of the baseline carbon emissions of the Business-As-Usual (BAU) Scenario and the ex-ante carbon emissions of the GO!Durban system in the year 2030, was carried out, according to several vehicle technology options. It was calculated that in 2030 the BAU scenario is predicted to emit between 380 to 482 kt CO2 equivalents (CO2e). The planned GO!Durban IRPTN system will lower these emissions to between 177 to 192 CO2e. These results showed that the implementation of the planned IRPTN will decrease greenhouse gas emissions of the PT sector of the eThekwini Municipality by 54% to 60% in 2030. The procurement of efficient vehicle technology is the key factor in this development.

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