Quadratic Regression and Factorial Analysis on the Effect of Climatic Elements on Global Food Production and Land Nutrients in Africa
Journal Title: Annals. Computer Science Series - Year 2018, Vol 16, Issue 1
Abstract
The United Nation has its number one Sustainable Development Goal (SDG #1) of No Poverty Global World which is, Agriculture and Food Security. The question to be asked is how do we make production of food like maize, rice, and wheat (the three – world stable food) available in abundant, in the face of excessive temperature, limited or excessive rainfall, and low or sometimes high humidity? World maize, rice, and wheat production must increase by approximately 1% annually to meet the growing demand for food that will result from population growth and economic development. Global mean surface air temperature increased by ≈0.5°C in the 20th century and is projected to further increase by 1.5°C to 4.5°C this century. The seasonal and spatial variation of temperature, rainfall and humidity have been an important climatic factor determining the cropping pattern, regulates the agricultural activities and quality of food production all over the world. This research work examines the effect of these climatic elements on Food Production in Africa: establishes standard Temperature level, amount of Rainfall and relative Humidity required for the optimal yields of Maize, Rice and Wheat; Predicts the optimal yields of these global crops; Investigates degree of loss to food productions in Africa. A 3 by 3 factorial experiment was used for data analysis, further test was carried out using Duncan Multiple Range Test to detect the most significance of the various levels of climatic elements used. Multiple regression analysis was adopted to obtain the normal levels for the three main factors. Thus, the derived Quadratic regression model: Yi=µ+αTi+βHi+ẟRi+λT2i+πH2i+τR2i+ξi was used to predict yields of these crops. The result of the various data analysis shows that all the three climatic elements contributed significantly to the yields of the three crops. In some region of Africa, Temperature, Rainfall and Humidity exceed normal while in some region the three climatic elements were below normal which affected the yields of the crops. Thus, there is reduction in the food production in Africa between 2015 and 2016: Maize 9.489%, Rice 11.482%, Wheat 14.827%.
Authors and Affiliations
Osuolale Peter POPOOLA, Omotola Omotayo DAWODU, Olufemi Olusola YUSUF
Keywords
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