Research on prediction of total power of agricultural machinery in Henan Province during the 14th Five-Year Plan
Journal Title: Journal of Henan Agricultural University - Year 2023, Vol 57, Issue 4
Abstract
[Objective] This study was conducted to improve the accuracy of the prediction model of the total power of agricultural machinery in Henan Province, obtain more reliable prediction results, and provide support for the modernization and development planning of agricultural machinery in Henan Province during the 14th Five-Year Plan. [Method] Based on the relevant data of total power of agricultural machinery in Henan Province from 2017 to 2020, this paper forecasts the total power of agricultural machinery in Henan Province during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period by establishing a prediction model for the total power of agricultural machinery in Henan Province. Aiming at the multiple collinearity problem of linear regression model and the problem that grey model can only represent the exponential growth trend of a single series, the principal component regression prediction model and grey regression prediction model were established, and the precision of the prediction results of the two models was compared and analyzed. [Result] The average relative errors of the principal component regression prediction model and the grey regression prediction model were 0.003 3% and 0.003 0%, respectively. The prediction accuracy of the grey regression prediction model was higher. The power of agricultural machinery in Henan Province in the future was predicted by the grey regression model, and the predicted values were 10 538.81×104, 10 591.08×104, 10 627.67×104, 10 653.28×104 and 10 670.21×104 kW. The relative error between the predicted value and the actual value of agricultural machinery power in Henan Province by the grey regression prediction model in 2021 is 1.04%, which is smaller. [Conclusion] It can be seen from the model prediction data that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the total power growth of agricultural machinery in Henan Province tends to be flat. Some backward agricultural machinery will be gradually eliminated from the agricultural machinery market. Machines with higher operating efficiency and more comprehensive functions will fill the gap in this part of the market. The development of agricultural machinery in Henan Province will enter a stage of comprehensive, high-quality and efficient development.
Authors and Affiliations
Li DING, Hui WU, Yufei XU, Yuan WANG, Xun HE, Wanzhang WANG
Keywords
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- EP ID EP769231
- DOI 10.16445/j.cnki.1000-2340.20230112.001
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