Statistical Forecasting of Producer Price Index for Foods, Beverages and Tobaccos
Journal Title: Статистика України - Year 2016, Vol 74, Issue 3
Abstract
Food and beverage industry is the most significant industry for the Ukrainian economy: it accounts for nearly 1/4 in the total industrial sales, and nearly 1/5 in the total exports. This raises the importance of forecasting key indicators of the industry performance, with special emphasis on index of producer price for foods, beverages and tobaccos. The objective of the paper is to show methodological tools for statistical forecasting for stationary and non-stationary dynamic series with monthly or quarterly periodicity by use of linear regression methods, chain substitutions and seasonal coefficients, which can be realized in MS Excel. The best method is chosen by indexes of producer price for foods, beverages and tobaccos, computed for January 2007 - September 2016. Dynamic series are divided into stationary and non-stationary ones. A non-stationary dynamic series can consist of three main components: trend, seasonal component for monthly or quarterly data (cyclic component for yearly data), and irregular (random) component. Stationarity of a series is checked by Dickey - Fuller test. Each type of dynamic series uses its own methods of statistical forecasting: for a stationary series the method of chain substitution should be chosen, for a non-stationary series with a trend the linear regression will be the best, for a series with seasonal component the method of seasonal coefficients should be chosen, for a series with trend and seasonal component the method of seasonal coefficients should be used. It is found by Dickey - Fuller test that the series of index of producer price for foods, beverages and tobaccos is a stationary one, i. e. the one requiring the method of chain substitutions for forecasting. Yet, all the three methods were approbated for illustration purposes. Index of producer price for foods, beverages and tobaccos is estimated by the three methods of statistical forecasting for the period of September - December 2016. The computations confirm practicability of the chain substitution method for forecasting stationary dynamic series. It is found that the most significant measure for assessing quality of the forecasts is correlation coefficient.
Authors and Affiliations
L. О. Yashchenko
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP564221
- DOI -
- Views 154
- Downloads 0
Comprehensive Statistical Assessment of Indexes of Economic Growth and Material Welfare of the Ukrainian regions
The article offers the statistical methodology for assessment of relationship between economic growth and material welfare of the Ukrainian regions based on the method of complex statistical coefficients by using statist...
Фискальное пространство для системы здравоохранения: современные подходы к формированию и диагностике
Проведен аналитический обзор теоретических подходов к определению сущности понятия “фискальное пространство для системы здравоохранения”. Обосновано, что для системы здравоохранения фискальное пространство является одним...
Statistical Modeling of the National Economy Transformation in the Globalization Context: Institutional Approach
The article is devoted to the important problem: assessment of national economy transformation from the institutional perspective. It is demonstrated that traditional neo-classical and neo-Keynesian approaches are incapa...
Природничі підвалини управління рівноважним економічним розвитком. Частина II. Складові частини капіталу та перспективи їх модернізації
Проаналізована спроба М. Руденка побудувати новітню модель економічної рівноваги, що з позиції онтології грунтується на засадах закону парних і непарних чисел. Розглянуто положення, що усвідомлене управління рівноважним...
Оцінка інвестиційного співробітництва України з країнами ЄС
Досліджено та оцінено інвестиційне співробітництво України з країнами ЄС. Проаналізовано обсяги, структуру та динаміку інвестиційних потоків між Україною та Європейським Союзом. Сформовано головні проблеми співпраці Укра...