Stochastic and time series drought forecast using rainfall oscillations in arid and Semi-arid environments
Journal Title: Journal of Biodiversity and Environmental Sciences (JBES) - Year 2016, Vol 9, Issue 1
Abstract
The importance of water supplies in the world, underscores the need for estimating and forecasting the trend of meteorological phenomena, understanding atmospheric phenomena and its trend in economic management. This includes optimization of profitability and productivity impact, especially in arid and semi-arid schedules. Conversely, climate and rainfall are highly non-linear and complicated phenomena, which require non-linear mathematical modeling and simulation for trusted accurate prediction. In this study, monthly rainfall data were obtained from 10 synoptic stations from 1985 to 2014. Thereafter, R software was employed in predicting the height of rainfall in 10 synoptic stations (2003 to 2014) using monthly height of rainfall data (1985 to 2014). In this research, five models (AR, MA, ARMA, ARIMA, and SARIMA) with 12 different structures were tested. After deciding on the optimal model to be used for each station, rainfall was forecast for 120 months (2014 to 2024) and then for the years 2014 and 2024 iso-rainfall maps were outlined. From the findings of this research, it was observed that in 80% of data, ARMA (2,1) had better results than the other models and according to the simulated and predicted rainfall by time series models, the drought situation was evaluated using standardized precipitation index (SPI). The result thus revealed that in comparison to 2014, severe drought will have decreased by the end of 2024.
Authors and Affiliations
Abbasali Vali, Mostafa Dastorani, Adel sepehr, Chooghi Bairam Komaki
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP38872
- DOI -
- Views 179
- Downloads 0
Source Specific Quantification and Composition of Municipal Solid Waste at Nomal Valley, District Gilgit, Pakistan
Solid waste menace is a serious concern all over the world. The current study focused upon the source specific quantification and composition of municipal solid waste at Nomal valley district Gilgit. Data was collected t...
Structure and composition estimation of plant species around Khoh river of Garhwal Himalaya, India.
The present study was carried out along the Khoh river of Garhwal Himalaya with the aim to assess the species composition and diversity of plant species between the forest vegetation along the river and the forest, whic...
Modeling the compression index for fine soils using an intelligent method
Construction of buildings and different structures leads to soil consolidation, hence, causes soil settlement. Soil settlement depends on numerous factors, for instance, pressure deformation, depletion of pore water, an...
Essential oil composition of lemon verbena (Lippia citriodora) leaves cultivated in Mazandaran, Iran
In this study the chemical composition of the essential oil extracted from leaves of Lippia citriodora (Verbenaceae) grown under greenhouse conditions in mazandaran, Iran. The essential oil was obtained by hydrodistilla...
Plants That No Body Wanted: An Assessment of the Conservation Status of Plant in Mohmand Agency FATA, Pakistan
The current study was an attempt to encompass the conservation status of plants of Mohmand Agency, (FATA) Pakistan. IUCN Criteria was followed for the assessment of the conservation status of the plants in the area. Tota...