Структурна вразливість та фінансова нестабільність України: глобальний контекст
Journal Title: Економіка і прогнозування - Year 2018, Vol 18, Issue 4
Abstract
The Ukrainian economy has been suffering from financial instability for years, which manifests itself in the chronic devaluation of the hryvnia, regular financial, budgetary, debt and banking crises, cyclical inflation surges, "excommunication" of the public and private sectors from international financial markets, national dependence on external official loans, creditors and conditions for receiving their credits. Each further financial aggravation in Ukraine is accompanied by a deep economic crisis, an increase in unemployment, social tension and the spread of public disbelief. After all, such a picture has been observed in the country for 20 years in a row. According to a common glance that seems particularly obvious during each new explosion of financial /budget deficits, the root cause of all these problems is excessive state consumption, which provokes unproductive costs in all sectors of the economy, increasing its internal instability and vulnerability. In such circumstances, strict budgetary constraints are considered as the best safeguard for financial and economic stability. The article offers a different view on the causes of financial instability in Ukraine. In particular, as its key factor, structural and manufacturing imperfection is considered, which causes the country's financial dependence on fluctuations of the world conjunction on the raw materials it produces and exports. This approach is consistent not only with the logic of "intoxication" of the domestic economy during the last global financial crisis, but also with the results of relevant studies conducted after it has been overcome. Underlying circumstances of the financial dynamics of Ukraine is the global liquidity supply, the volume of which directly depends on the nature of the monetary policy applied by the world's leading central banks. In particular, its easing is accompanied by an increase in demand in world markets, including those of raw materials, which stimulates economic growth of Ukraine with simultaneous increase of its financial capabilities. Conversely, the introduction of a tighter monetary policy oppresses global demand, commodity prices and, consequently, the productive and financial prospects of the national economy. The analysis of empirical data confirms this hypothesis. In particular, the study concludes that the impact on the real GDP of Ukraine of world commodity prices and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the euro is, in certain circumstances, more significant than inflation in Ukraine (PPI) and the exchange rate of the hryvnia against the dollar. This allows to interpret the external monetary conditions as a significant factor for the economic and financial stability of Ukraine. It is so significant that, under certain conditions, its effectiveness succeeds that of the monetary and exchange rate policy of the NBU itself.
Authors and Affiliations
Сергій Кораблін, Світлана Шумська
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP484785
- DOI 10.15407/eip2018.04.007
- Views 122
- Downloads 0
The low sensibility of monetary transmission mechanism in low-income countries
The paper deals with the low sensibility of the main channels of the monetary transmission mechanism in in low-income countries. In the article, the hypothesis of low-responsiveness and disconnection properties between t...
Cross-compliance – європейський підхід взаємного дотримання зобов'язань при наданні державної підтримки сільгоспвиробникам
В Євросоюзі сільськогосподарські субсидії фермерам надаються лише за умови виконання ряду вимог стосовно захисту навколишнього середовища, якості продуктів харчування і належного утримання худоби. Цей підхід отримав наз...
Перспективи зростання економіки України на фоні глобальних трендів
Представлено динаміку довгострокових трендів розвитку світової економіки, країн з розвиненою економікою та країн, що розвиваються. Детально розглянуто фактори, що визначають глобальні перспективи економічного розвитку та...
Прогнозування тренду світових цін на нафту на базі СМІ-моделі економічних циклів
This paper presents author's method to forecast price trend direction for crude oil based on CMI-model of business cycles. As crude oil is included in CRB-index, which is the average weighted prices for 19 raw materials,...
Теорія і практика використання індикаторів бюджетної стійкості
The author notes that, in their studies on fiscal policy, Ukrainian scientists are now beginning to use fiscal sustainability indicators. However, some researchers allow themselves to freely treat the formulas of these i...