THE CONSIDERATION OF MEASUREMENT UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST AND MAINTENANCE RELATED DECISIONS
Journal Title: Problems of Management in the 21st Century - Year 2011, Vol 1, Issue 5
Abstract
In the field of operations management, most decisions are seen as being based on measurement results. However, every measurement has some uncertainty and therefore managerial decisions can be incorrect. Measurement uncertainty can cause particularly large losses in the case of maintenance decisions, where decision error can cause the breakdown of the entire production or service process. Taking measurement uncertainty into consideration the losses can be decreased. The standards, technical reports and guides dealing with measurement uncertainty use probability approach and focus on the metrology aspect. They do not support a risk based decision based on the forecast of the observed characteristics. In the proposed risk based model the realized (or lost) revenue is treated along with the occurred costs in order to maximize the profit with the help of analytic calculation and simulations. This paper suggests that by treating measurement results as a time series the time of probable failure can be predicted at a given confidence level, this can support the scheduling of maintenance tasks. The uncertainty of measurement and the uncertainty of forecasting can be treated in the same model.
Authors and Affiliations
Csaba Hegedűs, Zsolt T. Kosztyán
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP32090
- DOI -
- Views 399
- Downloads 1
MANAGING INTER-FIRM COOPERATION TO IMPROVE TOURISM DESTINATIONS: A CLUSTER APPROACH
The researcher examines the existence and nature of inter-firm relationships between tourism stakeholders within various Bulgarian tourist destinations and how they relate to the competitiveness of the destination. The...
SUPPORTING E-MARKETING DECISION MAKING BY THE MANAGEMENT OF THE ESZTERHÁZY KÁROLY COLLEGE VIA BEHAVIOUR-BASED SEGMENTATION OF THE VISITORS OF THE INSTITUTIONAL WEB-PAGE
The increasingly competitive higher educational environment compels the management of universities and colleges to assign high priority to an overall maximisation of client services. Consequently, while academic leader...
THE IMPACT OF CONTROL PROCESSES ON MANAGERIAL DECISION MAKING
Control and managerial decision function activities have an important share in the managerial work. The paper The Impact of Control Processes on Managerial Decision Making describes the share of managerial control and de...
THE ACCOUNTING OF NON-PROFIT ORGANIZATIONS IN PORTUGAL: THE CASE OF PRIVATE INSTITUTIONS OF SOCIAL SOLIDARITY (IPSS)
The nonprofit sector is made up of nonprofit organizations that, by law or custom, do not distribute any profit that may be generated by the Associates. They are institutionally separate from government, are self manag...
RISK MANAGEMENT AND RISK COMMUNICATION IN MOZAMBIQUE: THE CASE OF ARMS AND AMMUNITION DEPOTS OF MALHAZINE
Risk management and risk communication affect everybody’s daily life. Local authorities have the duty to manage public structures, to inform civilians of the risks coming from these structures, to implement prophylaxis...