The Synchronization of Regional Business Cycles with Nationwide Cycles
Journal Title: Dynamic Econometric Models - Year 2009, Vol 9, Issue 1
Abstract
This paper attempts to assess the level of synchronization between the business cycles of Poland’s regions and those of the country as a whole. The measure of economic activity was an index of total industrial output sold, recorded monthly from January 1999 to December 2008, adjusted for seasonal and random fluctuations. The analysis of dominant business cycles was performed using spectral analysis. To assess the synchronization of cycles, characteristics of cospectral analysis were used: coefficient of coherence, amplitude intensification and phase difference. In the conclusion, an attempt is made to construct a synthetic indicator as a means of ranking the regions by degree of business cycle synchronization.
Authors and Affiliations
Milda Burzała
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP134866
- DOI -
- Views 88
- Downloads 0
Density Forecasts Based on Disaggregate Data: Nowcasting Polish Inflation
The paper investigates gains in performance of density forecasts from models using disaggregate data when forecasting aggregate series. The problem is considered within a restricted VAR framework with alternative sets of...
Regime-dependent Assessment of Risk Concerning the International Aviation Inclusion Into the EU ETS
In this article the European Union Aviation Allowances (EUAA) price risk, associated with the activity of aircraft operators within the European Economic Area (EEA), has been evaluated across the low and high volatility...
An Econometrical Analysis of Entrepreneurship Determinants in Polish Voivodeships in the Years 2004–2013
This article presents research results and describes and clarifies differences in a level of the entrepreneurship index observed between Polish voivodeships in the period from 2004 to 2013. The expected results were conf...
Combined Forecasts Using the Akaike Weights
The focus in the paper is on the information criteria approach and especially the Akaike information criterion which is used to obtain the Akaike weights. This approach enables to receive not one best model, but several...
Distribution Choice for the Asymmetric ACD Models
In the paper, I generalize the Asymmetric Autoregressive Conditional Duration (AACD) model proposed by Bauwens and Giot (2003) with respect to the generalized gamma and the Burr distribution for an error term. I derive...