Verification of VARSHA Rainfall Forecasts for Summer Monsoon Seasons of 2009 and 2010
Journal Title: International Journal of Current Research and Review - Year 2017, Vol 9, Issue 21
Abstract
Objective: The monsoon year 2009 is a severe drought with 21.8% deficit rainfall from the long period average according to India Meteorological Department (IMD) over India since the past decade and 2010 is a normal monsoon year. Therefore, the verification skill of the VARSHA model has been computed for one normal monsoon and one drought year. Method: The statistical parameters like mean error, root mean square error and correlation coefficient has been computed at every model grid point and verified against the rainfall observations from India Meteorological Department and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). The analysis is also extended to dichotomous forecasts, i.e. yes/no forecasts, by using contingency tables. The four regions namely, South peninsula, Central India, North-East and North-West regions of Indian land mass have been considered for the verification analysis. Result: India receives a major portion of its annual rainfall during the summer monsoon season (June to September) and thus accurate prediction of summer monsoon rainfall is very crucial. Rainfall is a discrete parameter which shows large variations spatially as well as temporally. VARSHA, a hydrostatic global circulation model, developed at Flosolver unit, National Aerospace Laboratories (NAL), Bangalore, is used to predict summer monsoon rainfall from the year 2005 onwards. Forecast verification serves to assess the state of the art of forecasting. Therefore, verification of the model forecast is an important task for any numerical weather prediction centre. In this study, an attempt has been made to examine the skill of VARSHA model in predicting the rainfall during summer monsoon period of 2009 and 2010. Conclusion: The results show that model forecasts are useful at medium range and the performance of VARSHA is better in 2010 compared to 2009. The statistical skill scores show high predictability for light rain events with a decreasing tendency with an increase in intensity.
Authors and Affiliations
S. Vijaya Bhaskara Rao
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP606947
- DOI 10.7324/IJCRR.2017.9214
- Views 132
- Downloads 0
Tinea Capitis Among Primary School Children: A Clinicomycological Study in a Rural Hospital in Central India
Aims & Objectives 1. To determine the clinical & mycological profile of tinea capitis Among Primary School students of Rural area 2. To correlate of KOH microscopy and culture for diagnosing Tinea capitis. Methods & Resu...
Natural Periodic Oscillations Extracted in the Precipitation using Empirical Mode Decomposition and Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition methods
Objective: The monthly mean precipitation over India is used to investigate natural periodic wave characteristics using a novel technique of Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) and Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (E...
Effects of Electromagnetic Radiation Emitted from Mobile Phones on Different Physiological Systems and Possible Remedies
Aim: In this paper, we aim to provide a review of some of the studies which investigated the possible negative biological effects of mobile phone radiation on different mammalian systems. This review will provide answers...
Effect of Iron Overload on Gonadotrophins and Organ Sex Steroids in Pubertal Thalassemia Patients
Background: Iron overload being one of the major adverse effect related to blood transfusion in β Thalassemia major,leads to various endocrinal disorders among which hypogonadism is noteworthy.Pituitary or gonadal iron d...
Physical Attributes as Indicator of Performance for Broad Jumping
Aim: The Aim of the present study was to identify the talent for standing broad jump with the help of physical attributes. Methodology: The sample of the present research work was selected from Govt Boys School Mansa of...