A Time Series Analysis of Macroeconomic Determinants of Corporate Births in Romania in the period 2008-2013
Journal Title: Revista Romana de Statistica - Year 2015, Vol 63, Issue 2
Abstract
In this article, we studied the relationship between macroeconomic factors and the observed corporate births for the Romanian economy through the Autoregressive Distributed Lags Model (ADL). We performed a time series analysis that uses monthly data for the period January 2008 – December 2013 in order to establish the impact of the fiscal and monetary policy adopted by the Romanian government in times of economic crisis on the firms’ demography. The corporate birth rate is an endogenous variable in a linear function model with five exogenous macroeconomic variables such as the CPI, the loans ratio to GDP, the FDI, the long term interest rate, tax rate to GDP and the lags of the dependent variable. The main finding is that the variance of the corporate birth rate variable is negatively correlated with the variances of CPI in the current month and the interest rate two months lagged. We also determined that the variance of the dependent variable was positively correlated with the variances of the loans rate two months lagged, tax rate four months ago and FDI two months lagged and FDI in the current period.
Authors and Affiliations
Marușa Beca, Ileana Nișulescu-Ashrafzadeh
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP148307
- DOI -
- Views 179
- Downloads 0
Change Management Employees’ Resistance Towards Organizational Change
The paper presents the results of a study carried out using data from the AnticrisisManager platform, in order to identify the Romanian economy areas that offer the biggest opportunities for change. The model used in thi...
Abordări privind achiziţionarea de date şi informaţii on-line
Informaţia este acum mai uşor şi mai rapid de a fi obţinută decât oricând înainte, datorită Internetului, „de înaltă calitate”. Mediul de investiţii pe Internet favorizează o supraevaluare a acestuia. Cu cât un utilizato...
Methodological Rigors in the Statistical Research on Urban Household Waste
This article describes the conditions imposed, the constraints and the solutions that are specific to statistical research in the broad field of ecology, materialized within the limited range of urban waste. Exhaustive i...
Cluster Analysis on Cohesion Policy Towards Europe 2020 Strategy for Smart, Sustainable and Inclusive Growth
In the framework of Europe 2020 strategy for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth, economic, social and territorial cohesion plays an important role in (re)shaping Europe and recover from the financial crisis. In this...
THE SINGLE EURO PAYMENTS AREA - THE POTENTIAL OF CASHLESS PAYMENTS DEVELOPMENT IN ROMANIA
The creation of the single euro payments area is the natural outcome of the creation of the monetary union and the single currency adoption. This large project that aimed at standardizing and harmonizing the payments ins...