AN APPROACH TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF EVENTS SCENARIOS BASED ON FUZZY MODELING
Journal Title: Економіка розвитку - Year 2014, Vol 72, Issue 4
Abstract
The problem of constructing so-called scenarios has been considered, these scenarios being hypothetical sequences of future actions associated with a particular course of events, depending on a number of poorly defined, difficult to predict in distinct factors and circumstances. These sets of scenarios make it possible to identify causal relationships and key parameters in various decision-making situations. Relevant mathematically proved models can be successfully applied in practice. They therefore become important for those who take a variety of industrial, administrative and commercial decisions under uncertainty inherent in today's competitive market environment. Both the main characteristics of the environment, and specific aspects of the problem being solved are considered in the scenarios. A description of the possible future situations and causes of these situations has also been provided. The method of fuzzy modeling has been proposed for this purpose. A conceptual mathematical formulation of the problem and ways to solve it have been offered. As an example, a simulation of the actual task of determining the continued production period and the time of replacement of industrial equipment has been described. A relevant graphic interpretation and ways and directions of analysis of the findings have been presented.
Authors and Affiliations
V. Chernov , O. Dorokhov
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP121866
- DOI -
- Views 120
- Downloads 0
THE DETERMINANTS OF THE CYCLIC RECURRENCE OF PUBLIC TRUST IN THE NON-STATE PENSION PROVISION
The key cause of the slow development of the non-state pension provision (NPP) in Ukraine is a low level of public trust, which is characterized by unstable dynamics. In the article, an attempt was made to identify the...
COMPLEMENTARITY OF INSTITUTIONAL BLOCKS AS AN INSTRUMENT OF SOCIOECONOMIC SYSTEMS ANALYSIS
The hierarchy of elementary grounds for institutional architectonics of socioeconomic systems has been presented. Its nano-(values, styles of thought, collective conventions, institutional forms and functions, etc.), mic...
УСВІДОМЛЕННЯ РИЗИКУ ПОКУПЦІВ У РІЗНИХ ЕКОНОМІЧНИХ СИТУАЦІЯХ: НАСЛІДКИ ДЛЯ В2В-МАРКЕТИНГ-МЕНЕДЖМЕНТУ
Досліджено поведінку менеджерів закупівельної діяльності під час економіч-ного буму 2007 року і подальшої кризи 2008 року. Спираючись на інтерв’ювання 84 респондентів сфери В2В, було досліджено можливі ризики та методи п...
ЕФЕКТИВНІСТЬ МЕХАНІЗМУ УПРАВЛІНСЬКОЇ ДІЯЛЬНОСТІ У СФЕРІ СОЦІАЛЬНОГО ВЛАШТУВАННЯ ДІТЕЙ У РЕГІОНІ
Визначено та досліджено механізм управлінської діяльності у сфері соціального влаштування дітей у регіоні. Встановлено та підтверджено, що управлінська діяльність у даній сфері можлива тільки на регіональному рівні. Визн...
DIFFERENTIATION BETWEEN THE NBU REGULATIONS AS TO PROVISIONING FOR ACTIVE BANK TRANSACTIONS
Theoretical principles and practical advice on the formation of reserves on active operations of banks were considered. The main differences were identified between Regulation No. 23 "About the formation and use of Ukrai...