Climate change and potential distribution of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis in Central Iran: Horizon 2030 and 2050
Journal Title: Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Medicine - Year 2019, Vol 12, Issue 5
Abstract
Objective: To investigate and predict the effects of climate change on the potential distribution of the main vector and reservoir hosts of the disease in Yazd province in the future. Methods: Distribution data for vector and reservoir hosts of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis in Yazd province were obtained from earlier studies conducted in the area. MaxEnt ecological niche modeling was used to predict environmental suitability. BCC-CSM1-1(m) model and two climate change scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were used for horizons 2030 and 2050 climate projections. Future projections were based on data of a regional climate change model. Results: With both scenarios in 2030 and 2050, the results of jackknife test indicated that the mean temperature of wettest quarter and temperature annual range had the greatest effect on the model for the vector and the reservoir hosts, respectively. Conclusions: The climate conditions are the major determinants of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis incidence rate in Yazd Province. These climate conditions provide favorable habitats for ease transmission of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis in this endemic area. Habitats suitability for the vector and reservoir will be expanding in the coming years compared with the current conditions, such that, in horizon 2030 & 2050, the probability of the presence of the vector and reservoir within 38 580 and 37 949 km2, respectively, from Yazd province is above 60%. Moreover, an increase is predicted in the presence of the vector in the western parts and the reservoir in the northern and central parts of the province in the future. Understanding the role of environmental and bioclimatic factors in zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis occurrence can provide a guide for policy-makers in the creation and implementation of more effective policies for prevention and control.
Authors and Affiliations
Abbas Ali Dehghani Tafti
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP573107
- DOI 10.4103/1995-7645.259241
- Views 79
- Downloads 0
Epidemiological, prevention and control updates of yellow fever outbreak in Brazil
Yellow fever is an acute viral disease endemic to tropical countries, like Brazil, where, since the 1940s, has no significant documented outbreaks similar to that observed between 2016/2018 (2 045 confirmed cases and 677...
Community-acquired pneumonia with Acinetobacter radioresistens bacteremia in an immunocompetent host: A case report
Rationale: Acinetobacter radioresistens is a non-fermentative Gram-negative coccobacillus that is environmentally ubiquitous and is an uncommon cause of pneumonia in an immunocompetent patient with no known chronic medic...
1Discipline of Human Physiology, School of Laboratory Medicine and Medical Sciences, College of Health Sciences, University of KwaZulu Natal, Westville Campus, Durban, 4000, South Africa
Objective: To study the effect of citric acid given alone or combined with atropine on brain oxidative stress, neuronal injury, liver damage, and DNA damage of peripheral blood lymphocytes induced in the rat by acute mal...
Tuberculosis/toxoplasmosis co-infection in Egyptian patients: A reciprocal impact
Objective: To assess the concurrent toxoplasmosis infection in Egyptian TB patients and the impact of each infection on the other in terms of increased severity of TB or reactivation of latent Toxoplasma infection. Metho...
Antihypertensive efficacy of extract of Hedera helix in high salt-induced hypertensive Sprague-Dawley rats
Objective: To explore the antihypertensive effect of extracts from the leaves of Hedera helix (H. helix) on normotensive and hypertensive rats in-vivo followed by vasodilatory studies in-vitro. Methods: The crude methano...