ECONOMETRIC MODELING OF FIRE STATISTICS OF KREMENCHUK
Journal Title: Вісник Кременчуцького національного університету імені Михайла Остроградського - Year 2017, Vol 1, Issue 105
Abstract
Purpose. To investige fire statistics, a set of time series containing information on the number of fires and preven- tive measures, in particular, from the number of reports in the media, allowing the construction of an econometric mod- el for the fire prediction. Methodology. The use of correlation-regression analysis, a model for obtaining probabilistic- time estimates of the correlation of fire statistics has been developed. As a method of forecasting, autoregression with a distributed lag has been chosen. Results. Based on the statistical research carried out, the results have been obtained indicating a relationship between the number of fires in Kremenchuk and the number of reports in the media with the time lag between them. Using the constructed econometric model, a forecast of the number of fires in Kremenchuk for three years has been obtained. Originality. This is the first time econometric modeling and forecasting of indicators of fire statistics in the town of Kremenchuk has been conducted. Practical value. The obtained information on the rela- tionship between the indicators of fire statistics in Kremenchuk, with a specific time lag and the projected values of the number of fires should be taken into account when making managerial decisions in the Kremenchuk town-based de- partment of the Main Department of the State Service of Ukraine for Emergency Situations in Poltava region. Refer- ences 12, tables 3, figures 4.
Authors and Affiliations
V. Chernenko, N. Kyrylaha
Keywords
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