Investigating effects of macroeconomic indices on productivity of construction projects using Marcov-Switching Vector Autoregressive method
Journal Title: Journal of Science and today’s world - Year 2015, Vol 4, Issue 9
Abstract
This study examines the effects of macro-economic indices (economic growth, inflation and liquidity) on productivity of construction projects. Research results indicate that increasing macro-economic indices, productivity rate of construction projects also increase. Also, according to research results effect of macro-economic indices is higher in boom phase (second regime) in comparison to recession phase (first regime). So that in economic growth boom regime, economic growth with 0.99,liquidity 0.92 and inflation with 0.72 have the highest effect on construction projects while in recession regime economic growth with 0.06 percent, liquidity with 0.5 percent and inflation with 0.42 have the highest effect on civil projects. On this basis, in boom regime real variables (economic growth) and in the recession regime monetary variables (liquidity), have the greatest impact on productivity of construction projects. An interesting result is evident in research result that is positive effect of inflation on productivity of civil projects in the country's economy. Based on the theoretical principles it is expected by increasing defunct cost of civil projects demand for these projects would reduce. Consequently by decreasing supply and investment in productivity of civil projects, this sector will start to drop. However, due to high capital gains of civil projects and in particular housing and real estate (80 times the global average), increased inflation will increase productivity in this sector.
Authors and Affiliations
Ali Sadeghi, Ramin Tabatabaei Mir Hosseini, Mehdi Vaezi
Keywords
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